Unscientific hockey sticks and hidden data JoNova
It’s clear that the world was warmer during medieval times. Marked on the map are study after study (all peer reviewed) from all around the world with results of temperatures from the medieval time compared to today. These use ice cores, stalagmites, sediments, and isotopes. They agree with 6,144 boreholes around the world which found that temperatures were about 0.5C warmer world wide.
UPDATED: For more details on what boreholes show see this detailed coque iphone xs post which updates this one. While other proxies give us information on the relative temperature and the timing, boreholes suggest the warming was global. Climate models don explain past global temperature swings. They don understand all the factors that drive the climate. coque samsung a10 The fact that the IPCC ignored this coque pour samsung j5 2016 licorne graph, which at the time agreed with most proxies, tells us the IPCC is not driven by science but by politics. The way the interpretation of borehole results have swung wildly reflects how politicized science has become.
UPDATE: This graph is from McKitrick Essex based on data provided coque iphone 4 akatsuki by Huang in 2002 from the 1997 paper. In 2008, HP published a different analysis, came to a similar curve, but cooler results, and belatedly said this graph above really coque samsung j5 2017 solide ends in about 1900, not 1990. I be updating on the complexity of boreholes coque iphone 4 dragon ball super and will post that link here soon (Nov 2012).
What follows is a sordid tale of a graph that overthrew decades of work, conveniently fitted the climate models, and was lauded triumphantly in glossy publication after publication. But then it was crushed coque iphone 5 minion silicone when an unpaid analyst stripped it bare. It had been published in the highest most prestigious journal, Nature, but no one had checked it before or after it was spread far and wide. Not Nature, not the IPCC, not any other climate researcher.
In 1995 everyone agreed the world was warmer in medieval times, but CO2 was low then and that didn’t fit with climate models. In 1998, suddenly Michael Mann ignored the other studies and produced a graph that scared the world coque iphone 5 donuts tree rings show the “1990s was the hottest decade for a thousand years”. Now temperatures exactly coque iphone 5c fuck you “fit” the rise in carbon! The IPCC used the graph all over their 2001 report. Government departments copied it. The media told everyone.
But Steven McIntyre was suspicious. He wanted to verify it, yet Mann repeatedly refused to provide his data or methods normally a basic requirement of any scientific paper. It took legal action to get the information that should have been freely available. Within days McIntyre showed that the statistics were so flawed that you could feed in random coque iphone 4s fille swag data, like stock prices, and still make coque iphone 7 8 the same hockey stick shape nine times out of ten. Mann had coque iphone 5 nutella left out some tree rings he said he’d included. If someone did a graph like this in coque iphone 4 cuir a stock prospectus, they would be jailed.
Astonishingly, coque iphone 4s sky Nature refused to publish the correction. The correction was coque iphone 5c james bond published elsewhere, and backed up by the Wegman Report, an independent committee of statistical experts.
In 2009 McIntyre did it again with Briffa’s Hockey Stick. After asking and waiting three years for the data, it took just three days to expose it too as baseless. For nine years Briffa had concealed that he only had 12 trees in the sample from 1990 onwards, and that one freakish tree virtually transformed the graph. When McIntyre graphed another 34 trees from the same region of Russia, there was no Hockey Stick.
The sharp upward swing of the graph was due to one single tree in Yamal. Epic cherry picking!
Skeptical scientists have literally hundreds of samples.
Climate models don’t know why it was as warm years ago.
The so called “expert review” is meaningless. The IPCC say 2,500 experts review their reports, but those same “experts” made the baseless Hockey Stick graph their logo coque samsung galaxy j5 2017 geek in 2001.
Craig Loehle used 18 other non tree ring proxies. coque samsung s5 Temperatures were higher 1000 years ago, and coque iphone 6 plus cooler 300 years ago. We started warming long before cars and powerstations were invented. There’s little correlation with CO2 levels.
UPDATE: Oct 26 2012 Craig Loehle published a newer version of this graph in 2008 which he noted at the time produced change in the results. In the interests of transparency, so people can judge for themselves, you can compare those two graphs above and below. A larger, longer more detailed study of the Northern Hemisphere was done by Ljundqvist in 2012. h/t to There is still clearly no correlation with CO2 levels, nor do the coque iphone 5 stitch amazon climate models reproduce the MWP.
Loehle coque iphone 5 dylan o’brien 2008. Note the graph ends in 1935, not 1980.
This is Page 12 of The Skeptics Handbook II, a 20 page PDF.
I know a similar graph went up a couple of days ago around the web. The Skeptics Handbook II was published on Friday Nov 20. Craig Idso divided up studies into three different levels. Level 1 is the most useful, because they are able to tell us, not just whether the world is warming or not, but but also give a number. The level 2 studies just tell us whether things were warmer or cooler at that location, and with a specific timeframe. The level 3 studies are useful for pinpointing the time frame of the warming. All three levels are represented by orange dots. The numbers come from the level 1 studies. I did not put all the positive ones I could find because there were so many, but I included all the negatives I came coque licorne samsung j5 2017 silicone across…